Monday, August 17, 2015

Just a Reminder - Matt Barkley Does Not Have Trade Value

It was exciting to finally watch an Eagles game yesterday, even if it was only pre-season and even if I had to work real hard to figure out which guy was wearing which number.

With a solid performance from backup Matt Barkley - it may only be a matter of time before we start to hear talk radio rumblings about how the Eagles should trade their new surplus at QB. Given so many teams in the NFL are desperate for QBs - I'm sure folks will have visions of second day draft picks dancing in their heads from a team like the Jets or anyone else who sustains an injury.

I wanted to throw some cold water on that talk before it even gets started.

Let's set aside the debate over which QB, Barkley or Tim Tebow, that Chip Kelly would rather have on his roster behind Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez. That's a whole different discussion - and a fun one - but one that's best left to WIP to debate for the next 4 weeks.

Let's assume that Kelly wants Tebow and as such, Barkley becomes expendable. It wouldn't be shocking (Barkley was a Roseman pick after all and hence, wears a secret scarlet letter that only Chip can see).

But if the Eagles wanted to move Barkley - what's the realistic return from another QB desperate team? Let's look at the data...

I went back and found all the QB trades from the last few years and focused on ones that were made after the draft but before the season got started. What QBs got traded in that period and what value was exchanged:

August 2014: Patriots trade Ryan Mallett to Texans for a conditional 6th/7th round draft pick in 2016

June 2014: Texans trade TJ Yates to Falcons for linebacker Akeem Dent

August 2012: Seahawks trade Tavaris Jackson to Bills for a 2013 7th round draft pick

July 2011: Eagles trade Kevin Kolb to Cardinals for a 2012 2nd round draft pick and DRC

July 2011: Redskins trade Donovan McNabb to Vikings for a 2012 6th round draft pick

September 2010: Vikings trade Sage Rosenfels (and another player) to Giants for a 7th round draft pick

August 2010: Ravens trade John Beck to Redskins for CB Doug Dutch

September 2009: Chiefs trade Tyler Thigpen to Dolphins for a 3rd round draft pick

September 2009: Buccaneers trade Luke McCown to Patriots for a 7th round draft pick

September 2009: Lions trade Kevin O'Connell to Jets for a 7th round draft pick

Those are the last ten QB trades from roughly this period in the NFL calendar. There's one clear outlier - the Eagles highway robbery of the Cardinals in the Kevin Kolb deal - but remember Kolb at least had the pedigree of a high draft pick and several years of Andy Reid tutelage. Just about all the other deals are for 6th or 7th round picks or fringe players.

While it only takes one desperate team to overvalue someone (the Chiefs got a third round pick for Tyler Thigpen? Crazy!) - let's temper our expectations on Matt Barkley's trade value. If the Eagles do decide to move him - don't expect more than a 7th round pick.